Talking To Paul Krugman About AI
Guesting with Paul Krugman and talking AI, the parallels to prior capex periods in history, and more
1 min read
Newsletters
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Weekend Thinking Dec 5, 2025
AI vs aging populations, and tech's debt regime change, and the two Mikes
2 min read
Private Credit Talks Back
Two recent pieces on Blue Owl and Apollo show how private credit is feeling the heat
2 min read
AI Capex in H1 2025 Prevented a Recession
1 min read
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Me Media Watch: My WSJ Picks for Books on Work, Historical Bubbles, etc.
A piece I wrote for the WSJ, plus some assorted bubble / AI capex commentary
AI Capex Risk and the End of Scaling
Pre-training scaling briefly created a false sense of deterministic returns to engineering
3 min read
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Rogue AI, From RAND to Nvidia: Selection is the Signal
No reliable technical countermeasures exist, thus making prevention the only credible strategy. And on Nvidia going rogue.
2 min read
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Data Center Operators are Cheerily Uneasy About the Future
AI-driven data center build-outs are accelerating, but investors have almost no credible exit path
1 min read
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On Benchmark Games, Gemini, and Declining Returns to Scale
Benchmark gains are tiny, tests are curated, real comparisons erase Gemini’s edge, and escalating training costs keep driving diminishing returns across models.
4 min read
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Stranded Assets and the AI-Driven Gas Turbine Renaissance
AI-driven turbine demand is locking in decades of thermal capacity, reshaping global decarbonization paths and amplifying long-cycle energy risks
2 min read
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Media: Recent Bloomberg Odd Lots Appearance
I meant to mention this sooner, but my schedule has been a bit nuts. Last week I recorded an enjoyable appearance on Tracy and Joe's "Odd Lots&
1 min read
Updates: GenAI Adoption Shifts, Chinese Models, etc.
S-curve adoption stalls, benchmarks churn, and cheap Chinese/open models surge as capital-intensive moats erode across the AI stack.
3 min read
Plus and Professional tiers