Some of my notes from a bonkers new survey of 400 PE firms, VC funds, lenders, data center developers, and operators.
The Gist
AI-driven data center build-outs are accelerating, but investors have almost no credible exit path for assets valued in the tens of billions. But most funds still model 5–10 year exits, despite asset lives that look far longer, and despite the majority believing much data center capex will end up distressed.
Key Facts
- Only 11% of respondents expect to hold data-center assets >10 years
- Overbuild risk is rising: Some industry sources are saying US vacancies hit may have hit 7% in Q2–Q3 2025.
- CoreWeave now has $1.25B in expected annual interest expense.