Roundup: AI Crashes Into The Rest Of The Economy
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Paul Kedrosky
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AI, Robo-Deflation, and the Vision Unlock
I have spent more time than is healthy lately watching a hatted robot fold laundry. Sunday Robotics recently released this video of its ACT-2 Memo spending three hours folding
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Socializing Data Center Financing Risk
There is a strong new paper out about how private socializes risk via the (captive) insurance channel, with implications for data center capex, given the (now) greater than 50% reliance
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Reward Hacking, OpenAI-Hugging Face, Tight Coupling, and Teen Sex
The OpenAI–Hugging Face incident ("OpenHug", henceforth) is being misunderstood because different ideas and concepts are being collapsed into the same story. One version says that reinforcement learning
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Kimi, Model Convergence, and the Post-Training Era
Moonshot's Kimi K3 model has people over-excited, as if some trend has been broken, but they're wrong. As I have written here many times, large
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Chart of the Day: England and Argentina Revisit Past Grievances
England and Argentina are both revisiting past grievances in preparation for today's World Cup semifinal. This graph is of Google Trends data from each country's respective
AI Capex Boom Now Exceeds All Prior Non-War Booms
New work confirms our own ongoing analyses, that the current AI capex exceeds all prior ones. In terms of the pre-boom spending vs peak spending, inflation-adjusted, the current
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Hyperscaler CapEx Sits on Thin Implied Equity
Remarkably little economic value sits beneath the massive AI capital expenditure backlog. The net present value of future rental payments—after deducting the capex required to provide the compute—equals
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Roundup: South Korea, China, Microsoft, & Memory
Four things worth thinking about this evening: 1. South Korea leverage unwind. The following Scooby Doo statistic made the rounds today, and, while an exaggeration, it is directionally useful in
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A Modest AI Proposal
Something I wrote recently in another context and shared with some friends. Its inherent homage to clergyman Jonathan Swift will be obvious. Have a good weekend. Paul A Modest Proposal
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China Models Now More Than a Third of Enterprise Market
Chinese large language model usage among U.S. companies (on OpenRouter) has soared in the first half of 2026. After being in the low single digits through early 2025, token
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Technology and the Baby Bust Paradox
Falling birth rates shrink the workforce and slow economic growth. This has been economic orthodoxy since Adam Smith. New research finds the (almost) opposite, however. Countries with larger baby busts
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