Remarkably little economic value sits beneath the massive AI capital expenditure backlog. The net present value of future rental payments—after deducting the capex required to provide the compute—equals only about 15% of the roughly $2.2 trillion backlog, according to new Carlyle analysis. That thin implied-equity layer means the headline contracts are valuable only so long as customers remain creditworthy, capital stays available and the infrastructure earns competitive returns over many years. That is heroic stuff at this scale.
Check the following Carlyle graphic to see some comparisons:
Some implications:
- The AI capex backlog is not a large safety margin.
- Most of its value is eaten by the cost of building and financing the infrastructure required to fulfill it.