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Rough Notes, Mar 12, 2026: Dunning-Kruger LLMs, Urea, The God Test, etc.

A digest of recent Rough Notes

Here are recent rough notes from the site:

1.
Dunning-Kruger Effect Reveals LLMs Self-Assessment Limits

There is a Dunning-Kruger effect in LLMs, with stupid models not realizing that they are stupid. We are training models well: they are basically us.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.09985

Mar 12 · Permalink →
2.
Agent autonomously builds Linux-capable RISC-V CPU

In 12 hours and fully autonomously, an agent used frotiier models to build a Linux-capable CPU. This is a process that once took years, millions of dollars, and teams of TSMC engineers. Draw implications—from employment to innovation—as you wish.

Design Conductor: An agent autonomously builds a 1.5 GHz Linux-capable RISC-V CPU
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2603.08716

Mar 12 · Permalink →
3.
Urea-to-corn ratios surge amid Iran war

Urea-to-corn ratios—a key measure of fertilizers (un)affordability—are touching decadal highs on Iran war-related nitrogen chokepoints. Much higher food prices ahead, given that we, in effect, eat oil.

Fertilizer Prices Surge Due to War in Iran: Odd Lots
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/fertilizer-prices-surge-due-to-war-in-iran-odd-lots

Mar 12 · Permalink →
4.
Childhood Challenges Worsened by Technology

I hardly know where ot start with this sad piece, other than to point out the obvious, which is that AI will make it worse.

30 Facts About Childhood Today that Will Terrify You
https://www.afterbabel.com/p/30-facts-about-childhood-today-that

Mar 12 · Permalink →