Skip to content
3 min read

Rough Notes, Feb 24, 2026: Tail Risks, Capex, Backlog Issues, Nvidia earnings, etc.

A digest of recent Rough Notes

Rough Notes, Feb 24, 2026: Tail Risks, Capex, Backlog Issues, Nvidia earnings, etc.
Photo by Kelly Sikkema / Unsplash

Here are recent rough notes from the site.

1.
Captive-Insurer Affiliates Drive Parent-Organization Contributions

Captive insurer affiliates to private credit/equity are big contributors to the parent organizations, as I have pointed out many times. As ever, this creates a duration mismatch that doens't matter until it does, as we've seen to a limited degree in the recent retail race to liquodty causing lockups at Blue Owl and others.

https://www.ft.com/content/b6be87a9-0abf-4950-9060-2159aa547f3d

Feb 24 · Permalink →
2.
Recent Headlines
- OpenAI raises revenue forecast alongside forecasting cash burn of $11b to 2030 (The Information)
- Inference chiip maker Cerebras filles confidentially for an IPO (The Information)
- Insurance is the lifeblood of priatate credit and thus, increasingly, of AI capex (FT)
- IBM share fall 12% on ANthropic tools for defunct COBOL (CNBC)
- Anthropic accuses Chinese AI companies of launching concerted distillation attacks to clone models (Anthropic(

Feb 24 · Permalink →
3.
Nvidia options price 6.2-percent earnings move

Using the first post-earnings weekly expiry (Fri, Feb 27, 2026) and the nearest ATM strike, Nvidia options are currently pricing about a ±6.2% move into earnings (Wed, Feb 25, 2026). I would take the over.

Feb 24 · Permalink →
4.
ODNI warns LLMs create security crisis

LLMs are a security crisis, according to a major new report from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) on AI . Not sure how this slipped out in all the administration AI bonhomie, but it is a good report about rapidly growing tail risks to ... everything.

Trojans in Artificial Intelligence: Final Report
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.07152

Feb 24 · Permalink →