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Rough Notes II, Feb 23, 2026: Jobs, Energy, SaaS, etc.

A digest of recent Rough Notes

Rough Notes II, Feb 23, 2026: Jobs, Energy, SaaS, etc.
Photo by Kelly Sikkema / Unsplash

Here are recent rough notes from the site.

1.
Fed Governor Waller Highlights Jobs Data Skew

Fed governor Christopher Waller argued recently in a talk that the upward-skew in BLS jobs data means that last year was likely only the third time since 1940 that the US lost jobs outside a recession.

Feb 23 · Permalink →
2.
State Energy Regulators Rethink Rate-Base Utility Model

Inevitable, but worth noting that state energy regulators are finally revisting rate-base-driven systems-utilities earning a premium on deployed capital—and their role in increasing (consumer) energy costs. The combination has been a flywheel for runaway capex spending, made worse by by AI data centers.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/new-jersey-regulators-begin-rethinking-electric-utility-business-model/812799/

Feb 23 · Permalink →
3.
AI-driven anti-SaaS arguments reveal misunderstanding

I have argued repeatedly that the AI-driven anti-SaaS arguments, like the attached, are silly and incoherent.

1/ If SaaS is going to be replaced by SaaS, then SaaS isn’t going away

2/ People don’t buy enterprise software because it’s complicated. They buy it so they don’t have to do it, and so they have someone to shoot at when it doesn’t work.

Feb 23 · Permalink →
4.
OpenAI leaks conflicting capex cuts and margin pressure

There is a confused "leak" from OpenAI about cutting capex spend over the next 4 years, from $1.4 to $600b. But the piece doesn't make clear if they are the same spend buckets, but someone there is trying hard to leak a spending cut.

A tidbit in the piece: Inference costs up 4× in 2025; adjusted gross margin down from 40% → 33%. Price deflation and competition are hammering it.

https://www.reuters.com/technology/openai-sees-compute-spend-around-600-billion-by-2030-cnbc-reports-2026-02-20/

Feb 23 · Permalink →