I have written about AI capex and its outside role in US GDP growth many times here. Just look here, here, here, and here, among others.
But we are into a new phase.
Today's BEA second estimate revised Q4 2025 GDP growth down to 0.7% annualized, which is half the advance estimate. Buried in the detail: the BEA line that captures servers and GPUs and such contributed +0.66 percentage points to that growth. The rest of the U.S. economy contributed roughly +0.04 points — statistical noise.