Here are some of the best posts and notes from the past week:
While the SaaSpocalypse has been striking—declining multiples among the largest SaaS equities out of AI fears wiping $800b in market cap—a related and perhaps more impportant story is that software multiples are only back to pre-pandemic levsls. As a mature sector with declining margins, it almost certainly should be lower.
Memory, not compute, is the main bottleneck on AI compute, as Epoch points out here. They don't take it the next step, however, and draw out the implciation: Nvidia's moat is less meaningful than ever in a memory-bound world.
https://epochai.substack.com/p/advanced-packaging-and-hbm-not-logic?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=3755861&post_id=190772921&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=5s9uw0&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Urea-to-corn ratios—a key measure of fertilizers (un)affordability—are touching decadal highs on Iran war-related nitrogen chokepoints. Much higher food prices ahead, given that we, in effect, eat oil.
Fertilizer Prices Surge Due to War in Iran: Odd Lots
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-11/fertilizer-prices-surge-due-to-war-in-iran-odd-lots
Honestly not sure I've ever seen a disconnect this large: Workers vs executives on AI & productivity.
My current reading—Robert Wright's upcoming book—is unsettling, smart, and, I think, largely correct.
https://www.amazon.com/God-Test-Artificial-Intelligence-Reckoning/dp/1668061651
Nearly unprecedented late-winter heat wave rolling across the western U.S. in coming six days. Records being broken by huge amounts, and on consecutive days, as well as nighttime lows. The remnant snowpack will sublimate almost entirely, months ahead of normal, and the energy grid will be under multiday cooling pressure.
US retail margin debt newly at record levels as a percentage of GDP. The decoupling of debt to GDP vs debt to market cap is striking, a sign that markets have convinced themselves they have escaped the surly bounds of mere economic growth.
