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Rough Notes, Mar 26, 2026: Oil Virus, Snowpack, Iran & Complexity, etc.

A digest of recent Rough Notes

Here are recent rough notes from the site.

1.
Oil shock ripples outward from Middle East

You can think of the current rippling oil flow shock worldwide as a kind of virus, expanding in concentric rings from the Middle East based on shipping times crossed with domestic production/stocks. While an isochrone map would work well, I only have limited data. Here, in bar chart form, is the shock rippling outward and around the world.

Mar 26 · Permalink →
2.
Record heat wave erases Western snowpack

This winter's western U.S. snowpack, which was below normal most of the winter in most locations, has been put paid to by a record heat wave that has gone on for almost ten days. Tahoe resorts are closing a month early, and the Colorado snowpack is at record lows for the date. I don't honestly care about resort operators, but the power and water implications are material.

https://www.sfgate.com/renotahoe/article/palisades-tahoe-season-closure-22094751.php

Mar 26 · Permalink →
3.
Economist notes trace Iran-oil complexity

A few more of my notes from the recent Economist discussion on Iran, oil, and cascading complexity with the former MI6 head. Again, same broken/true framework.

Mar 26 · Permalink →
4.
Iran war fractures intelligence consensus

Some of my notes from this smart Economist discussion with former MI^ head. I use a "What's broken / What's now true" framework when thinking about fractures to consensus.

A former spy chief’s take on intelligence and the Iran war | The Economist Insider
https://www.economist.com/insider/inside-defence/a-former-spy-chiefs-take-on-intelligence-and-the-iran-war

Mar 26 · Permalink →