Here are recent rough notes from the site.
Nearly unprecedented late-winter heat wave rolling across the western U.S. in coming six days. Records being broken by huge amounts, and on consecutive days, as well as nighttime lows. The remnant snowpack will sublimate almost entirely, months ahead of normal, and the energy grid will be under multiday cooling pressure.
US retail margin debt newly at record levels as a percentage of GDP. The decoupling of debt to GDP vs debt to market cap is striking, a sign that markets have convinced themselves they have escaped the surly bounds of mere economic growth.
I point this out endlessly, but common AI benchmarks are less useful than thought, given both metholdogical issues and that they are increasingly ingested by models. That more than half of agentic code passing code benchmarks is not acceptable should thus come as no surprise.
https://metr.org/notes/2026-03-10-many-swe-bench-passing-prs-would-not-be-merged-into-main/
Fascinating new Google DeepMind paper on why AI can simulate consciousness but cannot actually be conscious. Somewhat technical philosophy, but well written and accessible—and important.
https://philpapers.org/archive/LERTAF.pdf
US crude oil exports declined last year for the first time since 2021.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67324
India is quietly becoming an electronics assembly powerhouse, thanks, in part, to recent China tariffs.
Apple Now Makes About 25% of iPhones in India After China Pivot - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-10/apple-now-makes-about-25-of-iphones-in-india-after-china-pivot
FT tonight pointing out that OpenAI is now weighing on a few of its largest holders.
https://www.ft.com/content/d7dc7ba4-66d3-4e31-83cb-44efdd00c67c
Having helped private credit make leveragedloans to take stakes in SaaS and AI companies, Goldman is now taking the other side, using total return swaps.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/goldman-pitches-hedge-funds-product-bet-against-corporate-loans-source-says-2026-03-09/
Tremendous and harrowing piece in Bloomberg today on how the rise of robotics and AI in China has been devastating for jobs: Wages are falling, workers are at record levels of pessimism, jobs are more tenuous, etc.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-03-09/china-s-tariff-defying-export-boom-leaves-its-factory-workers-behind
Working paper with highly troubling implications for an increasingly agentic AI world:
LLM agents don't actually do Bayesian reasoning — they mimic it. Belief updates are plausible but disconnected from evidence. with severe base-rate neglect. In multi-step agentic pipelines, this compounds silently: each step looks reasonable while beliefs drift away from reality. At scale, this is undetectable until outcomes are suddenly catastrophic
https://openreview.net/pdf?id=7cRVi47XT0
