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Rough Notes: Jan 16, 2026

A regular digest of recent rough notes

The following is a new, regular email, based on my "Rough Notes" feature on the site. It will send out digests of my regular notes, like what you see below.

Here are recent rough notes from the site.

1.
Limitations of Amazon Commissioned Report

In particular, here are a few things Amazon gets wrong about its own commissioned report, leading my study quibbles:

- The study is partial equilibrium, not full. It doesn't model system changes in supply and demand, thus making it unable to support Amazon's claims.
- Revenue is estimates marginal cost at the time of the subsidy, thus excluding margin tightening, externalities, etc.
- "Surplus revenue" is an accounting term, at best, not ratepayer relevant

Jan 16 · Permalink →
2.
Data Center Study Claims Misrepresented

Wrt data center propaganda, the Amazon spin of a study it commission—showing no data center effect on rates, it trumpeted—is particular problematic. The study it cites, which it paid for, does not make as heroic of claims as Amazon assigns to it. https://www.ethree.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/RatepayerStudy.pdf

Jan 16 · Permalink →
3.
Data Center Community Relations Efforts

The propaganda machine around data centers is spinning, unsurprisingly given the measured effects on rates, NIMBY-ism, and a general sense in communities these great beasts are slouching into their neighborhoods in ways they don't condone.

Two recent examples:
1/ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-16/microsoft-and-meta-are-running-commercials-to-sell-data-centers-to-locals
2/ https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/sustainability/data-centers-electricity-bills-grid-power-amazon

Jan 16 · Permalink →
4.
AI Impact on Human Reasoning

Good phrase from new paper on how AI is breaking brains:

Cognitive surrender: the uncritical adoption of AI-generated outputs as one’s own judgments, bypassing intuition and deliberation and transferring cognitive control to the system, reducing one’s ability to reason

Thinking—Fast, Slow, and Artificial: How AI is Reshaping Human Reasoning and the Rise of Cognitive Surrender
https://sciety.org/articles/activity/10.31234/osf.io/yk25n_v1?utm_source=sciety_labs_article_page

Jan 16 · Permalink →
5.
Factors Driving Near Record US Equity Prices

The confluebce of foreces that have produced near-record equity prices in the U.S. is fascinating, from the rise of AI, to rates, to economic uncertainty leading to over-allocation to equity, to TINA (there is no alternative). The effect is fragility with an over-determined break almost ceertaintly ahead.

Jan 16 · Permalink →
6.
Younger Generations Increase Stock Market Investment

Younger generations, increasingly uneasy with a post-AI future, are investing more in the stock market, seeing it as a lottery ticket with which they can protect themselves. This is entirely predictable, this rise of gambling in the face of rising economic uncertainty, and has been seen in research repeatedly. [Source: Oliver Wyman Forum survey]

Jan 15 · Permalink →
7.
Barclays Report on Robot Labor Replacement

The sell-side infatuation with robots knows few limits, other than replacing themslves, of course. A new Barclays report is a full-on rave wrt future robot-centric human labor replacement. Worth scanning, in part because robot-related token usage floats many AI inference boats https://www.ib.barclays/content/dam/barclaysmicrosites/ibpublic/documents/our-insights/impactseries14/Barclays%20Impact%20Series%2014%20-%20AI%20Gets%20Physical.pdf

Jan 14 · Permalink →
8.
Roubini bullish on AI GDP growth

My usually-gloomy friend Nouriel Roubini sounding remarkably bullish about the AI-related GDP growth prospects for the U.S., even if much of the benefit doesn't necessarily flow to tech companies. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-13/roubini-sees-ai-boom-offsetting-risks-from-trump-to-geopolitics

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Jan 14 · Permalink →