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Rough Notes: Jan 23, 2026

A digest of recent Rough Notes

Here are recent rough notes from the site:

1.
AI is increasing software production

A few years ago I wrote a piece on how we have structurally underproduced software for decades, and how AI was ending that. It is now fascinating to watch that happen, whether in new App Store launches, or just former UX people discovering they are their own dev team.

Jan 23 · Permalink →
2.
Toilet Maker Shares Rise on AI Demand

Today in The AI Supercycle is Weird: toilet maker Toto. Goldman tipped the company's sideline in electrostatic chucks, used to hold silicon wafers in place during chipmaking, as an AI buildout play. The stock popped 11% on the news. What a world.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-22/japan-toilet-maker-toto-s-shares-get-unlikely-boost-from-ai-rush

Jan 23 · Permalink →
3.
Intelligence Can Change History

“To change the world, to change history, you don't need superintelligence. Very dumb intelligence is still enough to change history.”
—Yuval Harari

Jan 23 · Permalink →
4.
Superintelligence and Financial System Impact

From the sidelines of Davos, Yuval Harari on what superintelligence means to him:

"That it can make $1,000,000 on its own ... it can do everything, including opening its own bank account and it can make $1,000,000. Then it's superintelligence and then you can have millions of those taking over the financial system."

We will see that very soon, and, of course, it's instantly pyrrhic at scale.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGAA59JTBtg

Jan 23 · Permalink →