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Rough Notes II, Mar 5, 2026: Productivity, Mag 7 Survival, AI-Exposed Jobs, etc.

A digest of recent Rough Notes

Rough Notes II, Mar 5, 2026: Productivity, Mag 7 Survival, AI-Exposed Jobs, etc.

Here are recent rough notes from the site.

1.
Data Explaining Implicit Double-Counting in US Productivity Boomlet

To follow on from something I wrote earlier on the non-role of AI in the current US productivity boomlet, here is the data, and explanation for the implict double-counting, given outsided AI capex.

Mar 5 · Permalink →
2.
Predicting Mag 7 Stocks Longevity in Decade

Provocative question I was asked recently when visiting with a large hedge fund. How many of the current Mag 7 stocks¹ will matter in a decade, like be in the largest 100 equties by market cap?

Spoiler: I bet the field.

¹ Here is the Mag 7 list:

Apple (AAPL)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Alphabet (GOOGL / GOOG)
Amazon (AMZN)
Meta Platforms (META)
Nvidia (NVDA)
Tesla (TSLA)

Mar 5 · Permalink →
3.
Anthropic reveals AI-exposed jobs limiting entry-level hiring

Anthropic is also doing work on how the most AI-exposed occupations may be closing the door, at least a little, on entry-level employees. Here is my revision of their data, trying to draw the point out more clearly than they did.

Mar 5 · Permalink →
4.
Anthropic Expands AI Exposure Analysis Software Developers

Anthropic continues to do work on the most AI-exposed occupations, and this is its latest, which is led by software developers themselves, unsurprisingly. I have added the share of the whitecollar workforce to the Anthropic list.

Mar 5 · Permalink →