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Rough Notes II—Feb 4, 2026: Blue Owl, Huang, etc.

End of day Rough Notes from the site

Rough Notes II—Feb 4, 2026: Blue Owl, Huang, etc.
Photo by Aaron Burden / Unsplash

Here are recent rough notes from the site, starting with me annoyedly thumping my chest about having (loudly) had Blue Owl right last year, and Apollo somehow getting the credit.

1.
Private Market Tech Lenders Go Boom

While Apollo gets the credit in this Bloomberg piece on the SaaSpocalypse I was banging the Blue Owl tech lending risk drum through the second half of last year. Its exposure to both AI data center debt and software leveraged loans put in a "heads you lose, tails you lose" position. And when a partner there said it was the best risk-return moment of his career ... well.

Blue Owl, Ares Lead Private Market Firms Bashed by Software Risk https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-03/blue-owl-ares-lead-private-market-firms-bashed-by-software-risk

Feb 4 · Permalink →
2.
AI Build Out Will Not Lower Energy Costs

This claim doesn't even rise to the level of wish-thinking from Nvidia's Huang. It is simply naive.

Reasons:
• Capex ≠ cheap power
• Load growth is lumpy and localized
• Energy ≠ electrons
• AI doesn’t fix physics
• Fuel mix reality of gas + firmed renewables

I hardly know where to start with such nonsense.


Nvidia CEO Says AI Build-Out Will Eventually Lower Energy Costs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-03/nvidia-ceo-says-ai-build-out-will-eventually-lower-energy-costs

Feb 4 · Permalink →
3.
Crypto Market Cap Declines Accelerate Gold Flows

Total crypto market cap has now declined almost $2 trillion since the October peak. While that is striking on its own, it has almost certainly had flow consequences, including accelerating flows into gold and other supposed havens. Perhaps proof of this, the decline re-accelerated in the past seven days as gold went geometric.

Feb 3 · Permalink →