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Rough Notes, Feb 21, 2026: China AI Tea, Cybercrime, Cat Bonds, etc.

A digest of recent Rough Notes from the site

Rough Notes, Feb 21, 2026: China AI Tea, Cybercrime, Cat Bonds, etc.
Photo by Michael Lebedew / Unsplash

Here are recent rough notes from the site.

1.
China AI labs launch models bubble tea promotions

We are at "and you get a digital watch with that" phase of AI commoditization, with Chinese model makers offering bubble tea promos:

China’s AI labs unleash new models and bubble tea to lure in customers
https://www.ft.com/content/a3f9cd15-0217-4a5d-85b2-89738a5fce70

Feb 21 · Permalink →
2.
Cursor Declines as Codex Claude Code Rise

My guess is that Cursor—among the fastest-growing products in recent tech history—will be in sharp decline by the end of this year, havng largely been supplanted by conversational orchestration layers like Codex and Claude Code. And then, of course, closed source orchestration layers like the latter will be replaced by open ones, in short order.

Feb 21 · Permalink →
3.
U.S. Egg Prices Collapse Pre-Avian Flu Levels

According to the most recent data, U.S. egg prices have now collaped back to pre-avian flu levels, which will come as no surprise if you've been to a grocery story and seen shelves overrun with eggs. As the old commodities line goes, the best cure for high prices is high prices (and vice-versa).

Feb 21 · Permalink →
4.
Catastrophe-Bonds Flood Market Amid AI Risks

It is important and ironic in light of the growing and over-determined nature of catastrophes to see the money flooding into cat(astrophe) bonds. While they are mostly weather related, cyber/Ai is now among the largest new vectors and the risk is wildly mispriced, given AI as attack force multiplier of all kinds. We now even have two new cat bonds ETFs, as well, piggy-backing on our increasingly risky society.

Feb 21 · Permalink →