Private Credit Talks Back
Two recent pieces on Blue Owl and Apollo show how private credit is feeling the heat
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Paul Kedrosky
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AI Capex in H1 2025 Prevented a Recession
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Kedrosky Daily: Western US snow low, humans dominate mammal biomass
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Kedrosky Daily: Low Western US Snow Cover, Humans Dominate Mammal Biomass
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Kedrosky Daily: Military Base Zips Lead Crypto Returns, ORCL CDS Doubles
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Kedrosky Daily — Sunday Edition: China’s trade surplus nears $965B Bitcoin mining breaks even
November 30, 2025 Edition This is a weekly free look of our premium Kedrosky Daily email. If you're not already a subscriber, sign up for a five-day
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Me Media Watch: My WSJ Picks for Books on Work, Historical Bubbles, etc.
A piece I wrote for the WSJ, plus some assorted bubble / AI capex commentary
Has Corporate AI Adoption Stalled in Low Teens? Doubtful
Census data shows early AI gains fading: large-firm adoption slowing, small-firms plateauing, and overall usage well below capex-driven expectations.
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AI Capex Risk and the End of Scaling
Pre-training scaling briefly created a false sense of deterministic returns to engineering
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Kedrosky Daily: Nasdaq Bitcoin Diverge Mid 2024 AI Debt Surpasses Banks by 2025
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Kedrosky Daily: China saving rate; AI mega-deals in VC
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Rogue AI, From RAND to Nvidia: Selection is the Signal
No reliable technical countermeasures exist, thus making prevention the only credible strategy. And on Nvidia going rogue.
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